How to Test New Business Ideas – To Calculate Probability of Success of an Idea and Create a Healthy Portfolio
Narjeet Soni
as recording during on 2 June 2021 as part of Innov8rs Connect Unconference 2021.
We talked about how to test and validate new business ideas via experimentation and calculate the exact probability of success of an idea – using Bayes theorem.
Following the ideas discussed in this session, your decision to INVEST or KILL/PIVOT will become data-driven.
You will learn:
- How to identify unknowns and assumptions in your idea around problem, customer, solution and business model
- How to prioritize these assumptions?
- How to design experiments to test these assumptions?
- How to get the skin-in-the-game from customers (emails, phone numbers, time and money)?
- How to use the collected data to calculate probability of success of your idea?
Based on the calculated probability – you will be able to clearly decide whether to INVEST further to build the product or KILL/PIVOT your business idea.
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